2002 Text 3

文章¶

第一段¶

Could the bad old days of economic decline be about to return? Since OPEC agreed to supply-cuts in March, the price of crude oil has jumped to almost $26 a barrel, up from less than $10 last December. This near-tripling of oil prices calls up scary memories of the 1973 oil shock, when prices quadrupled, and 1979-1980, when they also almost tripled. Both previous shocks resulted in double-digit inflation and global economic decline. So where are the headlines warning of gloom and doom this time?

be about to do sth. → 将要去做 ...
crude oil → 原油
jump to → 上涨到
jump by → 上涨了
call up memories of ... → 唤起 ... 的回忆
oil shock → 石油危机
headlines → n. 头条（headline 复数形式）；新闻提要，大字标题
gloom → 忧郁，愁闷
doom → n. 厄运，劫数；悲观，沮丧 v. 注定

第二段¶

The oil price was given another push up this week when Iraq suspended oil exports. Strengthening economic growth, at the same time as winter grips the northern hemisphere, could push the price higher still in the short term.

push up → 提高
grip → 抓住，抓牢

第三段¶

Yet there are good reasons to expect the economic consequences now to be less severe than in the 1970s. In most countries the cost of crude oil now accounts for a smaller share of the price of petrol than it did in the 1970s. In Europe, taxes account for up to four-fifths of the retail price, so even quite big changes in the price of crude have a more muted effect on pump prices than in the past.

第四段¶

Rich economies are also less dependent on oil than they were, and so less sensitive to swings in the oil price. Energy conservation, a shift to other fuels and a decline in the importance of heavy, energy-intensive industries have reduced oil consumption. Software, consultancy and mobile telephones use far less oil than steel or car production. For each dollar of GDP (in constant prices) rich economies now use nearly 50% less oil than in 1973. The OECD estimates in its latest Economic Outlook that, if oil prices averaged $22 a barrel for a full year, compared with $13 in 1998, this would increase the oil import bill in rich economies by only 0.25-0.5% of GDP. That is less than one-quarter of the income loss in 1974 or 1980. On the other hand, oil-importing emerging economies—to which heavy industry has shifted—have become more energy-intensive, and so could be more seriously squeezed.

conservation → n. 保护，保存；节约，防止浪费；守恒定律
energy-intensive → adj. 耗能的；能源密集型的
consultancy → n. 咨询公司；咨询意见，顾问工作
steel → n. 钢，钢铁；钢铁工业

第五段¶

One more reason not to lose sleep over the rise in oil prices is that, unlike the rises in the 1970s, it has not occurred against the background of general commodity-price inflation and global excess demand. A sizable portion of the world is only just emerging from economic decline. The Economist’s commodity price index is broadly unchanging from a year ago. In 1973 commodity prices jumped by 70%, and in 1979 by almost 30%.

one more reason not to do sth. is that ... → 不要去做某事的又一个原因是
against the background of ... → 在 ... 的背景下
broadly → adv. 大体上，基本上

题目¶

31¶

The main reason for the latest rise of oil price is

[A] global inflation

[B] reduction in supply

[C] fast growth in economy

[D] Iraq’s suspension of exports

latest → 最近的
两个词在原文中不是一件事，典型的拼凑原文；时间也对不上，文章说的是之前的事情，题目问的现在；文章说的结果，题目问的原因！
supply-cuts 的同义改写。
定位在第二段，能对上！讲的不是一件事，但讲的是油价进一步提升的原因。
不匹配，错因和上面一样，答非所问！

32¶

It can be inferred from the text that the retail price of petrol will go up dramatically if

[A] price of crude rises

[B] commodity prices rise

[C] consumption rises

[D] oil taxes rise

33¶

The estimates in Economic Outlook show that in rich countries

[A] heavy industry becomes more energy-intensive

[B] income loss mainly results from fluctuating crude oil prices

[C] manufacturing industry has been seriously squeezed

[D] oil price changes have no significant impact on GDP

result from → 原因来自于 ...
原文说的是新兴国家，答非所问！
原文意思是收入的损失极少一部分来自油价波动。
受压榨的使新兴经济体，题目问的是富有经济体，本选项可以直接跳过。
正确选项！（往往和原文不太像，这个属于对原文的高度概括）

34¶

We can draw a conclusion from the text that

[A] oil-price shocks are less shocking now

[B] inflation seems irrelevant to oil-price shocks

[C] energy conservation can keep down the oil prices

[D] the price rise of crude leads to the shrinking of heavy industry

正确
段 1，与原文不符。
原文说的是减少了石油的消耗，两者无关。
原文说的是重要性下降，并不是萎缩；因果也不对应。

35¶

From the text we can see that the writer seems

[A] optimistic

[B] sensitive

[C] gloomy

[D] scared

optimistic → 乐观的
objective → 客观的
态度题核心技巧
- 选项分类(积极/消极/中立)
- 根据段落主旨/全文主旨/文章脉络/表达作者态度的感情色彩的词或词组来判断
- 积极方向词汇
  - optimistic==（乐观的）==
  - supportive==（支特的）==
  - hopeful==（满怀希望的，有希望的）==
  - positive==（乐观的，积极的，肯定的）==
  - favourable==（有利的，赞成的）==
  - sympathetic/sympathy==（同情的/同情）==
  - approval/consent==（同意，赞同）==
  - appreciation==（欣赏，理解）==
  - affirmation==（肯定，确认）==

单词记忆¶

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